Fons Trompenaars
Thinkers50 Hall of Fame | Bestselling Author, Riding the Waves of Culture | Cultural Diversity & Cross-Cultural Management Pioneer
2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences | David Rockefeller Professor, University of Chicago | Asset Pricing, Risk & Uncertainty
One of the most technically influential economists alive, Lars Peter Hansen won the 2013 Nobel Prize for pioneering empirical methods that transformed how financial markets and macroeconomic risk are analyzed. Creator of the Generalized Method of Moments — now a universal tool in economics — and Director of Chicago's Macro Finance Research Program, his current work applies cutting-edge decision theory to climate risk and long-term uncertainty. Audiences gain rigorous, evidence-grounded frameworks for navigating complexity.
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Lars Peter Hansen is the 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, honored jointly with Eugene Fama and Robert Shiller for empirical analysis of asset prices. Born in Urbana, Illinois, he earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota in 1978, served on the faculty at Carnegie Mellon University, and joined the University of Chicago in 1981 — where he has remained ever since. He currently holds the David Rockefeller Distinguished Service Professorship in Economics, Statistics, and the Booth School of Business, and serves as Director of the Becker Friedman Institute’s Macro Finance Research Program, one of the most influential applied macroeconomics initiatives in academia.
Nobel economist speaker Lars Peter Hansen is best known for developing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) — a statistical technique he introduced in a landmark 1982 paper that fundamentally transformed how economists test and estimate complex economic models. Rather than requiring researchers to fully specify how data is generated, GMM allows rigorous empirical analysis of partially specified models, making it a uniquely powerful tool for studying financial markets, asset pricing, and macroeconomic dynamics. The method is now standard across virtually every field of empirical economics and finance, from central banking to investment management to climate policy analysis. For this contribution alone, Hansen’s impact on the practice of economics is difficult to overstate.
Beyond GMM, Hansen’s research sits at the intersection of macroeconomics, finance, and decision theory — particularly around how rational actors price and respond to uncertainty they cannot fully quantify. His work on stochastic discount factors and the equity premium puzzle deepened economists’ understanding of why standard models struggled to account for observed financial market behavior, and his ongoing research explores how uncertainty propagates across investment horizons and shapes the valuation of long-term macroeconomic risk. In recent years, Hansen has applied these tools to some of the most consequential questions in public policy, including how decision-makers should price climate change risk under deep uncertainty — work that has earned attention far beyond academic economics, influencing discussions among central bankers, international institutions, and sustainability-focused investors. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, a past president of the Econometric Society, and recipient of the BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award and the CME Group-MSRI Prize in Innovative Quantitative Applications.
As a speaker, Lars Peter Hansen brings a rare combination of technical authority and intellectual breadth to audiences navigating uncertainty, financial risk, and economic complexity. His talks translate frontier research into decision-relevant insight: how to model and price risk when the system is not fully understood, what asset markets reveal about long-term expectations, and how policymakers and institutions can act wisely under conditions of deep uncertainty — whether in financial markets, climate strategy, or macroeconomic governance. Senior leaders in finance, investment, and economic policy consistently find his keynotes among the most intellectually rigorous and practically applicable of any Nobel laureate on the circuit today.
Drawing on decades of research at the frontier of asset pricing and macroeconomic modeling, Hansen examines how financial markets encode information about future uncertainty — and why standard models so often fail to capture it. This keynote offers senior audiences a rigorous but accessible framework for understanding how risk is priced across investment horizons, what stochastic discount factors tell us about long-run expectations, and how investors and institutions can make better decisions when the distribution of future outcomes is itself unknown. Particularly relevant for investment management, central banking, and sovereign wealth fund audiences.
One of Hansen's central research themes is how rational actors should behave when they know their models are simplifications — not just risky, but genuinely uncertain. This keynote translates that frontier work into practical insight for leaders: how to build robustness into economic and financial decision-making, when to trust quantitative models and when to treat them with skepticism, and what governance frameworks allow institutions to act decisively without pretending to certainty they do not have. Directly applicable to risk management, regulatory strategy, and organizational decision-making under ambiguity.
Hansen has applied his expertise in uncertainty economics to one of the defining challenges of our era: how should policymakers price and respond to climate change risk when the underlying systems are complex, the models are imperfect, and the consequences are long-horizon? This keynote presents a rigorous, decision-theoretic approach to climate economics that goes beyond conventional cost-benefit analysis — addressing the social cost of carbon, the valuation of emissions under uncertainty, and what sound climate policy looks like when designed for a world we cannot fully predict. Essential for audiences in sustainability, finance, energy, and public policy.
In this accessible keynote, Hansen traces how the development of rigorous empirical methods — including GMM — fundamentally changed economics from a largely theoretical discipline into one grounded in testable, data-driven inquiry. He reflects on what this revolution revealed about financial markets, asset prices, and macroeconomic dynamics, where the field's models still fall short, and what the next generation of empirical challenges looks like. A compelling choice for academic conferences, executive education programs, and any senior audience interested in how evidence-based thinking reshapes fields under pressure.
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